Few events are as uncertain or seem to last as long as the run-up to a U.S. presidential election. One of the biggest questions on investors’ minds during an election year tends to be “what could this mean for my portfolio?” If we look to history as a guide, we can gain some much-needed perspective on what elections mean against the market’s bigger picture.
* 60% GFD US-100 Index and 40% GFD US Bond Index, as calculated by historical data provider Global Financial Data. The GFD US-100 Index includes the top 50 companies from 1850 to 1900, and the top 100 companies by capitalization from 1900 to the present. In January of each year the largest companies in the United States are ranked by capitalization, and the largest companies are chosen to be part of the index for that year. The next year, a new list is created and it is chain-linked to the previous year’s index. The index is capitalization-weighted, and both price and return indices are calculated. The GFD US Bond Index uses the U.S. government bond closest to a 10-year maturity without exceeding 10 years from 1786 until 1941 and the Federal Reserve’s 10-year constant maturity yield beginning in 1941. Each month, changes in the price of the underlying bond are calculated to determine any capital gain or loss. The index assumes a laddered portfolio which pays interest on a monthly basis. All returns assume dividends/interest coupons are reinvested into their respective indexes. Average returns are geometric mean
**Vanguard calculations of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index returns in election years, based on data from Thomson Reuters.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest.
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. The performance of an index is not an exact representation of any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.