The end of 2020 brought a surge of hope about humanity’s ability to assert control over the COVID-19 pandemic. The first vaccines to emerge from clinical trials proved more effective than even the most optimistic assessments, raising the confidence of public health experts and investors alike, as I wrote late last year.
Now, even as infections and hospitalizations remain elevated and new disease variants appear to spread more quickly, we remain confident that the developed world will begin to show meaningful progress against the pandemic in the months ahead.
The essential variable? Vaccine distribution. Despite a slow start, the pace of vaccinations in the United States now exceeds one million per day.1 We’re early in the rollout, and we believe that initial distribution bottlenecks—attributable in no small part to stockpiling scarce supply to ensure second doses—are surmountable. A change in strategy that prioritizes first doses and increased vaccine production should ensure that the pace of vaccinations accelerates.